Top Mistakes Beginners Make in PrizePicks & Underdog
Whether you're new to PrizePicks, Underdog, or prop betting in general — avoiding a few key mistakes early can save you a lot of frustration (and money). Here are the top errors we see beginners make, and how to fix them.
1. Blindly Choosing Favorite Players
Many users gravitate toward stars like Steph Curry, Luka Dončić, or Patrick Mahomes. While they’re popular for a reason, that doesn’t always mean their props hold value. Instead, focus on the numbers — probabilities, matchup trends, and sportsbook data.
2. Ignoring Probability and EV
If you're not looking at the implied odds vs. actual probabilities, you're essentially guessing. Positive EV (expected value) betting means making decisions that statistically return a profit long-term. The OddsProphet Dashboard does this heavy lifting for you — highlighting value props automatically.
3. PrizePicks: Overusing 3 Pick Flex or Power Plays
This is a big one. While it’s tempting to go for the bigger payouts, PrizePicks' 3-pick payouts are statistically the worst in terms of EV. Many bettors assume a 3-pick is a "safe" slip — a sweet spot between risk and reward. But in reality, it requires an unrealistically high hit rate to be profitable. Beginners often fall into this trap chasing wins. Stick to 2-pick power or 5-pick flex for better long-term expected value.
4. Underdog: Avoiding 3-Pick Plays
Ironically, this is the opposite of PrizePicks. Underdog’s 3-pick entries actually offer excellent payouts compared to their 4- or 5-pick combos. Make the most of it by finding high-EV lines and pairing them up for consistent edges.
5. Not Using Real-Time Sportsbook Data
Odds move constantly, and fantasy prop platforms lag behind sportsbooks. The OddsProphet Dashboard shows you where props are mispriced — giving you the chance to exploit the edge before lines adjust.
6. Betting Without a Strategy
Prop betting isn’t about vibes or gut feelings. Build a system around probability, bankroll management, and consistent EV. That’s how pros think — and how you'll start seeing long-term success.
7. No Bankroll Management
Even if you’re placing +EV bets, without bankroll discipline, you can run out of funds before variance plays out in your favor. Especially if you're a small-sized bettor, it's critical to limit your unit size (e.g. 1-5% of your bankroll per slip) and avoid chasing losses. Positive EV strategies only work if you give them time — and money — to breathe.