PrizePicks vs. Underdog: Payout Comparison & Profitability
Discover break-even probabilities and strategic takeaways on power and flex parlays.
Break‑Even Win Probabilities & Positive EV
Whether you’re chasing that big payday or grinding small wins, understanding break‑even probabilities is the key to long‑term success. Below, we’ve computed the minimum per‑prop win rate needed to just break even on both Power Plays and Flex Plays across PrizePicks and Underdog. Here’s how you can turn that knowledge into positive expected‑value (EV) edge.
Understanding the minimum win rate needed for each pick in a power play is crucial to finding an edge and unlocking positive expected value (EV) on your tickets.
Methodology in a Nutshell
- Power Plays require every pick to hit—no misses allowed.
- Flex Plays award payouts for partial success (e.g., 5 of 6).
- For each parlay size (3–6 legs for flex; 2–6 for power), we solved for the probability p such that the expected value of a $1 ticket is exactly $1.
Power‑Play Break‑Even Analysis
The chart below shows the required win probability per prop for both PrizePicks and Underdog across 2 to 6-leg parlays:
- The y-axis shows the minimum win probability per pick required to break even.
- The x-axis shows the number of picks in your parlay.
- Lower values = easier breakeven (and more potential for positive EV).
Key Takeaways:
- Early‑Parlay Edge: At 3 legs, Underdog requires just a 55% hit rate per prop—3.5 points lower than PrizePicks.
- Mid‑Parlay Parity: Both platforms converge around ~56% for 4–5 picks.
- Long‑Shot Advantage: On 6‑leg tickets, PrizePicks dips to ~54.7% needed vs. Underdog’s ~55.3%.
Flex‑Play Break‑Even Analysis
Refer to the chart below for flex break‑even rates:
Key Takeaways:
- Small Ticket Cushion: Underdog again wins at 3–4 picks, needing only ~55–58% accuracy vs. almost 60% on PrizePicks.
- Flex Convergence: At 5–6 legs, both platforms hover around ~54–54.5%. PrizePicks slightly undercuts on 6‑picks (54.7% vs. 55.3%).
Strategic Implications for EV‑Focused Bettors
- Model Precision vs. Parlay Size:
- If your edge per prop is below ~56%, stick to Underdog’s short parlays or flex plays.
- If you’re routinely projecting 57–59%+, PrizePicks’ larger parlays (especially 6‑leg power) can amplify gains.
- Risk Management:
- Flex Plays cushion misses; use them when variance is high or confidence is moderate.
- Power Plays demand perfection but pay out big; reserve them for your strongest convictions.
- Ticket Construction:
- Blend small and large parlays: capture the undervalued mid‑50% edge on short Underdog tickets, then occasionally swing for the fences with PrizePicks’ top‑end multipliers.
Note: Just because strategies requiring more picks may have a lower per‑prop break‑even probability, it doesn’t mean you’ll win more often. Rather, you’ll achieve positive EV over the long run—even though you’ll lose more frequently on 6‑pick tickets despite their slightly better threshold.
TLDR: More losses in the short-run but -> better positive returns in the long-run.